After years of speculation and international headlines, a new study by Texas State University criminologists and the Austin Police Department has concluded the “Rainey Street Ripper” — a purported serial killer targeting Austin men on the edges of Lady Bird Lake — isn’t real.
At least 21 bodies have been recovered from the lake since 2018, reported the Austin American-Statesman. As more bodies were pulled from the lake over the years, the rumor of a serial killer became widespread and passionate, resurfacing in 2023 before spreading in recent months to Fox News, Nancy Grace, BuzzFeed, Newsweek, and at least three stories in The Daily Mail.
MySA reported that an Arkansas woman created a Facebook group called “The Lady Bird Lake Serial Killer” in February 2023, which has now grown to more than 92,000 members. Various viral TikTok videos spotlighting the theory of the “Rainey Street Ripper” have garnered more than 44,000 likes and hundreds of comments.
Despite the spread of the theory online, Austin police have for years remained consistent that there was no evidence of a serial killer. Now, Texas State’s study has concluded the same — that there is “neither direct evidence nor indirect warning signs of a serial murderer.”
Texas State’s Center for Geospatial Intelligence and Investigation analyzed 189 drowning cases from 2004 to 2025, and the report found they match historical patterns and the average risk of drowning in a growing city the size of Austin.
“The theory that a serial killer is drowning men from Austin’s Rainey Street District has been advanced by social and mainstream media for over two years now,” the study’s authors wrote. “Much of this coverage has criticized the failure of authorities to recognize the threat of a violent offender. But while police must properly respond to the risk of a predator, it is also important they not waste limited resources pursuing a criminal who does not exist.”
While the report required the team to work in cooperation with the Austin Police Department, the analysis was completely independent and involved an “evidence-based and scientific study of the data, for the purpose of understanding the nature and cause of these incidents and any possible connection to a serial killer,” according to its abstract.
“There is no serial killer,” said Sgt. Nathan Sexton, of Austin Police Department’s homicide unit, in an interview with KXAN this week. “The unfortunate deaths that happen for a city this size are consistent with a population this size and a body of water that runs right down the middle of it.”
One of the study’s authors, serial killer expert Dr. Kim Rossmo, told the station: “Hopefully, this will allow for a more moderate and rational discussion. That’s going to get us as close to the truth as possible.”
Judging by social media traffic, that’s not likely, even after the study.
In the comments section for the Statesman’s story on Instagram, dozens of people remained unconvinced. In fact, the majority of the nearly 100 comments expressed an unwillingness to believe the new study — and a reassertion of the conspiracy that police might themselves be involved.
“That’s because it’s a cop,” wrote @lamandamb. In just five hours, more than 200 people had liked her comment.
“We have investigated ourselves and determined we’ve done nothing wrong,” wrote @3lucyd.
“That’s because the call is coming from inside the house,” wrote @justbaugh.
On X, @BaronVnOttomatc wrote, “Of course, that’s what they want you to believe.”
Others wrote “Sure, Jan…” or posted the meme from “The Brady Bunch.”
In KXAN’s Instagram comments, the tone was much the same.
“I’m not saying this doesn’t make sense, but I am saying that throughout history, police and city officials have deliberately lied about a serial killer in order to not cause a panic,” wrote @mr.silveira98.
“I’m not buying what you’re sellin sir,” wrote @csnively. Others referenced the show “Dexter,” the series about a blood splatter expert who solves murders — and also commits them.
“I think there have been enough instances in high profile cases where the police, quite frankly, have screwed up, that it makes people very suspicious already,” UT professor and crime historian Kate Winsler Dawson told MySA, when rumors of a serial killer were flying around in April of this year. “But I certainly think over the years the trust in the police has eroded for many different reasons.”
But not everyone turned on the Austin Police Department. In fact, some pointed their skepticism toward Texas State and the study’s authors.
As @JeffOnVacation wrote on Blue Sky, “So, the ‘Rainey Street Ripper’ works at Texas State.” That same sentiment was shared by @wise_sarcasm on Threads, who wrote, “Murderer must have just started classes at Texas state this fall.”
The study’s authors reported that the number of drownings was largely a result of the city’s growing population, the popularity of visiting Lady Bird Lake, and the boom in nearby bars and nightclubs.
“While the shores of the Colorado River are not being stalked by a serial killer, the hazards of drowning in Texas remain a concern,” said the report.
“Online forums and media headlines have exaggerated the number of deaths by using longer time periods, larger geographic areas, and vaguer definitions of ‘suspicious,’” the study’s authors wrote. “But any analysis lacking information integrity has little validity.”
The authors also noted that news reporting on the story, particularly by Fox News and The Daily Mail, had been both sensational and reliant upon “the opinions of unqualified experts and others who ignored due diligence,” with too little attention paid “to the dangers of revictimization of family members” of the people killed in the drownings.
“These fabrications have costs in the real world, wasting valuable resources that could be deployed to help solve actual crimes,” said the study. “To provide perspective, the cost of a serial murder investigation is typically in the tens of millions of dollars. Currently, Texas has 23,000 cold case homicides — actual crimes that have not been solved.”
Despite all that evidence, for the commenters who disbelieve the police and the study’s authors, the prevailing opinion seemed to be that a serial killer was still lurking in Austin.
But it wasn’t completely unanimous.
As @olvera_mista wrote on KXAN’s Instagram post: “Alll these comments. Y’all want serial killer clout so bad for the city.”