Money’s always a hot topic in Texas elections — and this year it’s blazing.
A staggering $128 million has been spent so far in Texas’ Senate primary, making the race the most expensive on record, according to AdImpact, a political advertisement tracking platform. Republican ad spending is responsible for the lion’s share of that amount (which puts this Senate primary ahead of the $109 million spent in the 2022 Arizona Senate primary), but Democrats have also shelled out a substantial amount.
We’re here to break down the numbers for you, and explain the implications for the closely watched contests.
Republicans and an ‘Unheard of Sum’
As we predicted, the Senate primary has been an all-out war between the two remaining poles of the Republican party — or as we previously put it, “Trump friendly” and “MR. TRUMP, I WILL DO ANYTHING TO PROVE MY LOYALTY TO YOU, SIR.” It’s a storyline the proverbial money trail has borne out, even as the president has yet to officially weigh in.
Incumbent John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton are in a neck-and-neck race trailed by U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt, as establishment Republicans are spending at an unprecedented clip.
Ad spending in the race has stacked up to $98.9 million, according to AdImpact, which noted that GOP spending alone would be one of the most expensive Senate primaries on record. Much of it has been in support of Cornyn — the longtime establishment Republican trying to prove his MAGA loyalty — and against Paxton — the insurgent from the right with an impressive ability to weather political scandals. Things got even more complex in October when Hunt announced his run, much to the chagrin of national Republicans.
Cornyn has been working unusually hard against his challengers for an incumbent who has served in the U.S. Senate for almost two decades, with more than $70 million spent on ads in his support as of last month. That’s an “unheard of sum” for a candidate of his position, the New York Times wrote.
The other Republican candidates have taken notice.
“A 24-year incumbent that’s struggling like this after spending a Powerball ticket is rough,” Hunt said of Cornyn, according to NOTUS.
One of Cornyn’s financial backers is the Lone Star Freedom Project, former Gov. Rick Perry’s political group. The Lone Star Freedom Project has put $18 million behind Cornyn so far, and Perry said they would continue to spend “whatever we need” to see the senator survive the March 3 primary, according to the Texas Tribune.
Why are longtime GOP members aggressively funding Cornyn? The prevailing notion is that Cornyn has a better chance of beating the Democratic nominee in the general election.
Before the Democratic debate in January, Jeremi Suri, professor of public affairs and history at the University of Texas, told The Barbed Wire that Paxton’s negatives, including the aforementioned scandals, could alienate certain Republican voters and push Independents to come out for Democrats.
“It’s definitely in the interest of Democrats — either (U.S. Rep. Jasmine) Crockett or (Texas state Rep. James) Talarico — for Paxton to be nominee,” Suri said.
Other prominent Republicans backing Cornyn include Alex Latcham, who runs the Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC designed to push for a Republican majority in the U.S. Senate. In an interview with the New York Times, Latcham said that the financial backing of Cornyn is an investment in keeping Paxton from being the Republican nominee in November’s general election — which he said could leave the Democratic candidate more likely to win.
“Spend now, shore up support for John Cornyn and ensure that he’s the nominee — so you don’t have to spend $100 million to $150 million in November,” Latcham told the Times, which reported that Latcham’s super PAC, plus undisclosed donors, and Perry’s group have spent about $29 for Cornyn.
Who else is picking sides with their bank accounts?
Another super PAC, Texans for a Conservative Majority, has dished out about $17 million to support Cornyn’s campaign, financed by business executives like Blackstone’s Stephen A. Schwarzman and real estate developer Harlan Crow, the New York Times reported.
According to the Houston Chronicle, Texas businessman John L. Nau III also doled out $4 million to the pro-Cornyn super PAC. Kelcy Warren, a Dallas-based CEO gave $1.3 million to the super PAC, and Anthony Wood, the billionaire founder of the streaming device company Roku, donated $1 million to Cornyn’s campaign, the Chronicle reported.
The second biggest spender in the three-way race has been Hunt, with a total of $11.4 million in his support, according to AdImpact.
Hunt has also been vying for the backing of billionaire Elon Musk, according to the New York Times, writing in a fundraising email that “Elon agrees with Wesley Hunt.” However, Musk has not publicly endorsed Hunt.
Another group, Conservative Texans PAC, that has been funding anti-Hunt ads, raised $4.1 million from nonprofits that do not have to share who their donors are, according to the Texas Tribune. A total of $5.4 million has been spent on anti-Hunt ads in the race so far, compared to $3.6 million each on anti-Cornyn and anti-Paxton ads, AdImpact reported.
Paxton currently holds a narrow lead in polling on the race — despite spending a fraction of the amount of his competitors in advertising, at around $3.6 million, per AdImpact.
Per the New York Times, Paxton’s limited spending is based on confidence in his support from the Republican base. As he has campaigned for Senate, Paxton has made a show of his conservative stances, using the Texas Attorney General’s Office to file a flurry of lawsuits against everyone from doctors to tech companies and local school districts.
However, Texas Monthly found that he may have lost one of his previous prolific backers, oil tycoon Tim Dunn. The magazine reported that Dunn, who had previously helped Paxton out of his many scandals including his 2023 impeachment, told Paxton to stay out of the Senate race.
Many believe a runoff is imminent — if no candidate wins a majority of votes on Tuesday, the top two will advance to a primary runoff on May 26. That could tilt the scales in Paxton’s favor, as right-wing candidates typically prevail in Texas Republican primary runoffs, according to Texas Monthly. Though folks like Perry have made it clear they’ll continue to support Cornyn.
So, don’t expect the deluge of ads to go away anytime soon.
Democrats in the National Spotlight
Money has been flying across the aisle, too, thanks to James Talarico, the 36-year-old Texas state representative turned Senate hopeful.
Talarico has seen $24 million in ad support, more than four times as much as his opponent, U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, who has seen about $5 million, according to AdImpact and the New York Times.
In just three weeks this fall, Talarico pulled in a cool $6.2 million from 125,000 donors across all 50 states, which we noted at the time was either proof of a national movement or confirmation that people outside Texas enjoy watching Lone Star Democrats fight.
Then, according to Axios, Talarico outraised Crockett by $5 million in the first two months of 2026. Lone Star Rising, an independent PAC backing Talarico, has also spent more than $1.9 million on advertising.
Talarico got yet another boost in February after late-night host Stephen Colbert axed an interview with the Texas politician over CBS’s alleged legal concerns. Talarico brought in $2.5 million in the 24 hours after his segment was pulled from the broadcast, according to The Hill.
Still, an early February poll found Crockett leading Talarico by 12 percentage points, according to the Texas Tribune. A recent University of Texas’ Texas Politics Project poll also found Crockett in the lead with support of 56% of voters, while Talarico got 44%. Another recent poll from Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media found Talarico up over Crockett, 52% to 47%.
Talarico rocketed to national prominence after an appearance on “The Joe Rogan Experience” this summer and during the House Texas Democrats’ quorum break battle for the redistricted congressional maps. Rogan even gave him the presidential nudge. That’s the kind of coverage money can’t buy (though that early $6.2 million certainly helped).
Some of Talarico’s funding has drawn scrutiny. A Crockett news release in late February honed in on millions contributed to Talarico’s super PAC by Reid Hoffman, a billionaire cofounder of LinkedIn and AI investor. Hoffman was listed in the Epstein files and visited Jeffrey Epstein’s island, according to the El Paso Times.
The Talarico campaign also caught criticism early on for portraying the aspiring preacher as the antithesis of “billionaire mega-donors and their puppet politicians” yet receiving thousands of dollars in donations from billionaires, according to Spectrum News.
Lone Star Rising PAC, a pro-Talarico superPAC, has raised over $6 million to date — more than half of which has come from a group funded by undisclosed donors (commonly referred to as “dark money”), according to the Texas Tribune.
Crockett is no stranger to controversial campaign funding practices, either.
“In this Senate race I have not taken any corporate PAC money,” Crockett said in a January interview.
However, Crockett’s campaign filings show she has transferred at least $26,500 in corporate PAC donations from her U.S. House campaign to her senate campaign in December, according to The Intercept.
Crockett has also faced scrutiny for donations from cryptocurrency super PACs, which spent more than $2 million in her first congressional campaign in 2022, according to Texas Monthly. Crockett has been friendly towards crypto, voting for the GENIUS Act and the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act in Congress, bills both supported by the crypto industry and opposed by most other Democrats, according to The Intercept.
